BMN Harbinger 1/20/2012 45 °F 6AM

Moon Waning Crescent

Now Clear Wind  1 (mph)

Temperature 45 °F Feels Like 45 °F

Sunrise / Set 7:08 AM 5:15 PM

  Good Morning
45 °F prior to dawn in the middle of January; a possible harbinger for another terrible Spring? I sure hope not. I prefer to think about this with a quote by Louis Pasteur, "Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés" (Translated to English by Google) "In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind."  Or as it is more commonly heard translated "Fortune favors the prepared mind." I've always taken this to suggest that events we  observe might seem less like magic if we studied science more.

Instead of worrying about another drought I suggest we batten down the hatches and prepare as best we can for less precipitation here in the Southwest.  The very notion of another dry Spring should make building a  green house a priority here. 

We've been weighing the benefits of two pieces of heavy machinery in the hopes of fair insurance settlement from the wreck of the Shiny Red Blazer on Valentine's day one year ago.

My wish list includes a four wheel drive excavator which will run biodiesel capable of working in the rough terrain here.

Koiti-CK25diesel  I haven't heard of this brand, it is just a pretty picture. My thoughts are leaning toward a half buried greenhouse.
I'd like to build the greenhouse near the water line, with the north side buried.

Woodmizer-LT40-running_log_through_mill   A saw mill would greatly offset the cost of building structures here. Also,  if the climate continues to slide toward drought we will need to remove more trees and concentrate the remaining resources toward the remaining trees. The best value for this natural resource is lumber.

January-20th-2012-sunrise  When I brought Nell her coffee this morning we saw this gorgeous sunrise. I miss my BMN picture window with its panoramic views of our valley. If we can manage to stay in this house I'll move my computer to a different side of the house, a room with a view as the saying goes.

January-20th-2012-sunrise-Jeep
Here it is Friday again. Payday couldn't have come at a more opportune moment for me. I pushed my account to the limit this week.
After talking it over with my sister I  made an appointment with an attorney who will probate Clara's estate.
I don't know how that will turn out, but closure will be better than this situation we're dealing with now.

Onward, through the haze
Sincerely,
Brian Rodgers
—–    

News

More dry, windy weather expected for New Mexico, ranchers feel effect as cattle inventory dips

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — A three-week surge of winter weather has helped pull New Mexico from the brink of a record-dry year, but officials said Thursday the state appears to be set up for another dose of dry, windy and warm weather this spring.

New Mexico is coming off of what forecasters with the National Weather Service have logged as the state's sixth driest year on record. It would have been one of the worst had a series of storms not dumped much-needed snow and rain around the state in December.

The result was an "infinite" improvement over how New Mexico was faring over last summer and fall, said weather service meteorologist Ed Polasko. In October, nearly 90 percent of the state was locked in severe drought. Now, it stands at less than 64 percent.

"This is about as good as it has looked since February 2011," he said. "Let's hope that it doesn't go downhill from here."

The problem is the outlook through April continues with a good chance for below-normal precipitation and the probability for above-normal temperatures remains high.

The outlook and New Mexico's current drought status were shared during a drought monitoring meeting Thursday.

Water managers said they are worried about sustaining New Mexico's snowpack, while agriculture experts said the numbers showing the drought's impact on cattle ranchers are starting to come in and they don't look good.

Ranchers across the state were forced to sell off cattle last year as the drought left rangeland brown and dusty.

Preliminary figures show New Mexico is on track to have its lowest beef cattle inventory in 26 years. Les Owen with the New Mexico Department of Agriculture said he expects the number of female cows to drop below 400,000.

"It's been a long time since it's been that way," he said.

At the start of 2011, New Mexico had more than 1.5 million head of cattle spread between the beef and dairy industries. The New Mexico Livestock Bureau and New Mexico State University are working on updated inventory numbers based on export inspections and data from sale barns.

Caren Cowen, executive director of the New Mexico Cattle Growers Association, described 2011 as the worst year in memory for the range livestock industry in New Mexico.

Cattle prices were high, but she said the drought forced ranchers to buy more feed, which was being sold at a premium, and the cost of energy for pumping water for their herds remained high.

"The outlook continues to be bleak," Cowen said of the spring forecast, "but the nature of ranchers is to be optimistic while developing strategies to deal with another worst case scenario."

NMSU extension specialist Paul Gutierrez said cattle numbers had already been dropping over the last several years, but the drought led to unexpected decreases in herd numbers in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma.

The tight supply of cattle has also been driven by a strong domestic market for beef and growing international demand, he said.

With cattle prices expected to stay high this year, Gutierrez said it might be harder for New Mexico ranchers to rebuild their herds but he doesn't believe they're ready to give in to the drought.

"Last year was probably unprecedented in terms of the heat and drought and negative impacts to production, but at least they have an opportunity with a favorable market situation to make a go of what we've got," he said.

___

Follow Susan Montoya Bryan on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/susanmbryanNM